Zohran's Math: Can Taxing the 1% Really Pay for Free Buses, Childcare, and Rent Freezes?

tl;dr: Mamdani’s tax plan might not raise the full $9 billion he claims, but it could still fund transformative services. And if we took this national? We could feed everyone and maybe – just maybe – finally join the civilized world with universal healthcare.

Wow, folks. Did you catch Zohran Mamdani on Good Morning America this week? Our brand-new NYC mayor-elect (and yes, that’s actually a real thing that happened – a 34-year-old democratic socialist just trounced Andrew Cuomo!) laid out his plan to make New York actually livable for working families. And unlike the usual political word salad, he brought NUMBERS.

Here’s what Mamdani said, plainly:

• Raise taxes on individuals making over $1 million by 2%,
• Bump the corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5%
• And boom == $9 billion in new revenue

That’s enough, he claims, to fund free buses, universal childcare, and rent freezes for a million rent-stabilized apartments.

But does the math actually math? Spoiler alert: It’s complicated. And that’s exactly why we need to talk about it.

The Numbers Game: What Zohran Actually Said

During his GMA appearance on November 6th, Mamdani was crystal clear about his funding mechanism:

1. 2% tax on incomes over $1 million – affecting roughly 34,000 tax filers (about 1% of NYC taxpayers)
2. Corporate tax increase to 11.5% – matching New Jersey’s rate, affecting about 1,000 of the city’s most profitable companies
3. Total projected revenue: $9 billion annually

Let me repeat that last bit because it’s important: NINE. BILLION. DOLLARS. Every year.

Reality Check: Will It Actually Raise $9 Billion?

Time for some inconvenient truths. Independent analyses are… less optimistic.

The Cato Institute crunched the numbers and found that Mamdani’s corporate tax math doesn’t quite add up. They estimate the corporate tax hike would generate maybe $2.6 to $3.8 billion – not the $5 billion Mamdani’s team projects. The problem? Only about 736 corporations in New York State pay over $1 million in corporate taxes. You can’t squeeze blood from a stone, even a really expensive Brooklyn Heights brownstone.

The millionaire tax looks more solid, with estimates ranging from $2.2 to $2.9 billion annually. Add it all up, and we’re looking at somewhere between $4.8 billion and $6.7 billion – significant money, but potentially billions short of the promised $9 billion.

Does this kill the whole plan? Not necessarily. But it does mean hard choices about which services to prioritize.

What Could $6-7 Billion Actually Buy?

Even with the lower estimates, we’re talking serious money. Let’s break down what Mamdani wants to fund:

Universal Childcare

Multiple studies estimate universal childcare for NYC would cost between $6-13 billion annually, depending on the scope. A more modest program for just 2-year-olds? About $1.3 billion. The city comptroller estimates that lack of childcare currently costs NYC’s economy $23 billion annually in lost productivity. So even partial funding could be transformative.

Free Buses

This one’s actually doable. The Independent Budget Office estimates eliminating bus fares would cost about $650-800 million annually. That’s less than 1% of the city’s $115 billion budget. The MTA collected about $708 million in local bus fares in 2022 – and lost another $315 million to fare evasion. Making buses free could actually SAVE money on enforcement while speeding up boarding times by 50%.

Rent Freezes

This one doesn’t directly cost money – it prevents increases. But the lost revenue to landlords would be substantial, and you can bet they’ll fight it tooth and nail.

The upshot? Even with conservative revenue estimates, Mamdani could definitely make buses free and significantly expand childcare access. Universal childcare for all ages might require additional funding sources, but progress is progress.

What If We Taxed Those Making Over $500k?

Now here’s where I started getting excited. Mamdani’s plan targets the top 1% of NYC earners (those making over $800k-$1 million). But what if we expanded it to the top 5%?

In New York State, you need to earn about $250,000 to be in the top 5%. A tax affecting those making over $500,000 would likely capture the top 2-3% of earners – roughly 70,000-100,000 households in NYC. Conservative napkin math suggests this could potentially double the revenue from the income tax portion, adding another $2-3 billion annually.

That starts to get us much closer to Mamdani’s $9 billion target. And honestly? If you’re making half a million dollars a year in NYC, you can afford an extra 2% to ensure your barista can afford childcare.

The National Dream: What If We Ate the Rich Coast-to-Coast?

Okay, now let’s really dream big. What if we took this idea national?

Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax proposal – a 2% tax on wealth over $50 million and 6% on wealth over $1 billion – would affect just 75,000 households nationwide. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates it would raise $2.3-2.7 trillion over 10 years. That’s $230-270 billion per year.

What could we buy with that kind of money?

Feed Everyone? Easy.

SNAP (food stamps) costs about $100 billion annually – just 1.5% of federal spending. The recent government shutdown threatened to cut off food assistance to 42 million Americans over this relative pittance. With a wealth tax, we could DOUBLE SNAP benefits and still have $130 billion left over.

Hell, we could guarantee a basic food allowance for EVERY American and barely make a dent in the revenue. No more kids going hungry. No more seniors choosing between medications and meals. Just… food security for all. Revolutionary, right?

Universal Healthcare? Maybe!

This is the big one. Medicare for All estimates range wildly – from $28 trillion to $34 trillion over 10 years. A wealth tax alone won’t cover it, but $270 billion annually would make a serious dent. Combined with other progressive revenue sources (financial transaction taxes, carbon taxes, actually enforcing existing tax laws), we could get there.

But Wait, There’s More: The Rich Already Pay Less Than You Do

Here’s the part that makes my blood BOIL. We’re not even asking the ultra-wealthy to pay their fair share – we’re asking them to pay ANYTHING close to what the rest of us pay.

ProPublica got their hands on IRS data and discovered that Jeff Bezos paid ZERO federal income tax in 2007 and 2011. Elon Musk? Zero in 2018. When they do pay, the 25 richest Americans pay an effective tax rate of just 3.4% when you look at how their wealth actually grows. Bezos’ “true tax rate” between 2014-2018? Less than 1%. Warren Buffett’s? 0.1%.

ONE. PERCENT.

Meanwhile, what does a typical American pay? The median household earning $70,000 pays about 14% in federal taxes. A teacher making $68,000 who works overtime gets taxed at 25% on those extra hours – and that’s before payroll taxes. A nurse, a firefighter, a car mechanic – they’re all paying effective rates between 14-22% when you include income and payroll taxes.

The Center for American Progress found that the Forbes 400 paid an effective tax rate of just 8.2% from 2010-2018. A first-year teacher with student loans pays 14.6%. A married couple with two kids and a combined income of $100,000 pays more than double what billionaires pay.

This isn’t about punishing success. This is about the fact that a billionaire who could literally buy your entire neighborhood pays a lower tax rate than the barista who makes their morning latte.

The game is so rigged it’s not even a game anymore. It’s just theft with extra steps.

The Elephant in the Room: Will They Leave?

Every time someone proposes taxing the rich, we hear the same threat: “They’ll all move to Florida!”

Rolling Stone investigated this claim and found it’s mostly BS. When New York raised taxes on millionaires in 2021, the state’s millionaire population actually GREW by 21%. When New Jersey raised taxes in 2004, exactly 37 millionaires left. That’s it. 37.

Why? Because rich people choose where to live based on the same factors as everyone else: jobs, family, culture, amenities. NYC has Broadway, world-class restaurants, and the headquarters of countless major corporations. A 2% tax isn’t going to make Jeff Bezos decamp to Omaha.

Why This Matters Beyond NYC

Look, I live in a purple county, of a very blue state, where even suggesting a tax increase gets you a double take. But here’s the thing: NYC just elected a democratic socialist as mayor. By a significant margin. Against a Cuomo.

The Overton window isn’t just shifting; it’s being defenestrated.

If Mamdani can even partially deliver on these promises – if New Yorkers get free buses and affordable childcare – it becomes a lot harder for politicians elsewhere to claim these things are “impossible” or “too expensive.”

We’re not talking about radical redistribution here. We’re talking about asking people who have benefited most from our society to chip in 2% more so that everyone else can have a shot. That’s not socialism; it’s basic decency.

The Bottom Line

Zohran Mamdani’s tax plan might not raise the full $9 billion. The wonks at Cato and the Empire Center might be right that the math is optimistic.

But you know what? Even $6 billion could transform millions of lives. Free buses alone would save working families thousands of dollars a year. Affordable childcare would let parents actually work without going broke. These aren’t luxuries – they’re basics that most developed nations already provide.

And if we’re really brave enough to take this national? To finally, FINALLY make the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share?

We could have it all. Food security. Healthcare. Education. Infrastructure. The whole “more perfect union” thing we keep talking about.

The question isn’t whether we can afford to tax the rich. It’s whether we can afford not to.

Eat. The. Rich.

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Reference Links

Mamdani’s Election and Proposals:

• NPR: Zohran Mamdani wins NYC mayoral race
• ABC News: Mayor-elect discusses tax plan on GMA
• Ground News: NYC election coverage

Revenue Analysis:

• Cato Institute: Analysis of Mamdani’s tax revenue projections
• Empire Center: Impact of tax hike plans

Service Costs:

• Citizens’ Committee for Children: NYC childcare crisis
• Gothamist: Universal child care plans
• Vital City: Free fares analysis

Tax Fairness:

• ProPublica: How the wealthy avoid income tax
• CBS News: Income tax comparison
• Center for American Progress: Forbes 400 tax rates

National Implications:

• Penn Wharton: Elizabeth Warren wealth tax analysis
• USAFacts: SNAP program costs
• Rolling Stone: Why the rich won’t leave NYC